On Broken Dreams and The Need for Sanity in The Holyland

Students, friends, and colleagues have asked me about the war in Gaza. While none of my family members were hurt – people I know have been victims of the terrible attack of Hamas on October 7^th. I am in a dark cloud of sorrow and helplessness. The loss of lives and the death and destruction should not have happened. But it happens. I want to explain my understanding of the forces that brought us to this unfortunate reality. I will mix personal experience and family history with my interpretation of events. I will start with my understanding of the history of the conflict in Israel and then my response to recent events. 

My mother’s family arrived in Jerusalem around the year 1800 from Vilnius in Lithuania – and my father’s family migrated from Poland, Germany, and Morocco to the old city more than 150 years ago. They were part of a community of orthodox Jews who were attracted to the ancient land of Israel – and especially Jerusalem, where the Jewish civilization originated- before the destruction of the second temple 2000 years ago. After the Jewish Rebellion of 133 AC, close to a million Jews went to exile, and the old land of Israel has seen many conquerors and rulers over the years. When my ancestors arrived there, it was ruled by the Ottoman Empire. As you see from Table 1, the land had then less than half a million residents, mostly Arabs – and some Christians and Jews. The 19^th and early 20^th centuries saw a large migration of Muslims to Palestine from Egypt, Algeria, and even Bosnia and Russia. However, a large Jewish immigration started in the 1880s with the emergence of the Zionist movement. 

Year	Jews	Christians	Muslims	Total
1st c.	Majority	–	–	~1,250
4th c.	Majority	Minority	–	>1st c.[1][2]
5th c.	Minority	Majority	–	>1st c.
End 12th c.	Minority	Minority	Majority	>225
14th c.	Minority	Minority	Majority	150
1533–1539	5	6	145	156
1553–1554	7	9	188	205
1690–1691	2	11	219	232
1800	7	22	246	275
1890	43	57	432	532
1914	94	70	525	689
1922	84	71	589	752
1931	175	89	760	1,033
1947	630	143	1,181	1,970
Estimates by Sergio DellaPergola (2001), drawing on the work of Bachi (1975). Figures in thousands.[3]

Taken from Wikipedia.

Zionism was induced by the pogroms of the 1880s and the Dreyfus Affair of 1894. The early Zionists were primarily secular and suggested that the solution to antisemitism was building a Jewish state in Palestine. Theodore Hertzl, the father of Zionism, envisioned a secular state with equal rights for all citizens. The early Zionists established collective agricultural communities, and some settled in the cities. During the First World War, the British Foreign Minister, Lord Balfour, pledged his government’s support to establish a Jewish national home in Palestine (the official name of Canaan’s old land, also called the land of Israel). At the end of the First World War, The League of Nations assigned Britain a mandate to run Palestine until “such time as they can stand alone.”

The early settlers hoped to live in harmony with the Muslim majority, hoping to bring economic progress and improved living standards that would benefit all. Still, there were growing clashes between the communities, to some extent, inspired by religious fervor. My great-grandfather, who lived near Damascus gate of the old city of Jerusalem, was murdered by a mob leaving a Friday service at a mosque, and his wife was blinded. Despite the conflicts, Palestine was flourishing after the First World War. The emergence of the Nazi regime in the 1930s led to the emigration of large numbers of German Jews to Israel, and they were crucial to building an industrial base and modernizing the economy. During the Second World War, Palestine became a center of supply for the British Army, which attracted migrants from the Arab world, in addition to the Jewish refugees (see Table 1). 

The British Mandate that ruled Palestine couldn’t contain the conflict between the Jews and Arabs, and the British decided to terminate their Palestine Mandate to the United Nations. The United Nations voted on a partition plan leading to the establishment of two states, Jewish and Arab. The Arabs got more land (see figure below) and control of most of the land in central and northern Israel, which has a mix of subtropical semiarid climate with warm, dry summers and cool, rainy winters. The Jews got much of the coastal region and most of the Negev Desert. It was far from ideal for both parties, but it allowed each group to grow in the areas they lived. Israel accepted the plan and declared its independence on May 14, 1948, when the British Mandate ended. The Arabs refused to accept it, and seven Arab nations declared war and sent their armies to conquer Israel. The war lasted till an armistice was signed in March 1949. Israel survived the Arab invasion and gained a significant amount of land beyond the partition plan. The defeat was a disaster (Naqba) for the Palestinians as 700,000 people left or were driven out of their homes. Jordan took over the West Bank of Palestine, and Egypt took the Gaza Strip. They didn’t establish a Palestinian state there. Instead, the Arab countries settled their refugees in refugee camps, in many cases not allowing them to become citizens.  The strategy was to keep the refugee problem brewing till Israel will “disappear.” While 700,000 Arabs left Israel in 1948, 900,000 Jews migrated, fled, or were expelled from Muslim-majority countries throughout Africa and Asia, and about 650,000 settled in Israel.

The situation in Israel was tough between 1948 and 1952 as about 700,000 Jewish refugees, half from Arab countries, and others, survivors of the Holocaust from Europe, settled in the countries. The government, under the leadership of Ben Gurion, with support from the Jewish diaspora and some reparations from Germany, was able to build a modern economy and grow. 

There were some attempts to establish peace in the 1950s, but King Abdullah of Jordan, who was involved in negotiations with Israelis, was killed by members of the Muslim Brotherhood. The Arab nations established an economic boycott of Israel, and when I was a child in the early 1950s, there were continuous attacks on Jewish settlements. However, Israel built itself and went through an incredible period of growth in the 1950s and 60s. The Arab countries made several efforts to eliminate Israel. In 1967, Egypt blocked the entrance to the southern port of Eilat, and a Six-Day War started on June 5th, 1967. I was a soldier in this war, and my friends and I were afraid. We dug trenches in the area east of Tel Aviv in case Jordanians invaded. 

We heard the Arab radios speaking in Hebrew and promised that they would throw us to the sea. We were surprised at how fast the Israeli air force was able to eliminate the Egyptian and Jordanian air force, and Israel took over the Sinai Desert, the West Bank, and the Golan Heights. 

I wished that Israel would return the territories conquered in 1967 for true peace with the Arab world. I believe that after 1967, they realized that Israel was there to stay and that we could find resources to settle the refugees in the Arab world. After all, we had a population exchange between Muslims and Jews, which was akin to the population transition between India and Pakistan. Israel could join rich Arab countries in raising funds to settle the refugees. I spoke with some Palestinians and Israeli Arabs over the years, and they agree that you cannot move the clock back and instead develop the arrangement to allow people to build their lives. However, the reality was more complex. Peace negotiations didn’t start. Israelis started building settlements in the West Bank. The Egyptian Army crossed the Suez Canal in 1973, starting the Yom Kippur War. While Israel repelled the Egyptian and Syrian invasions, and the Israeli Army even crossed the  Suez Canal, the initial success of the Egyptians and the ingenuity of Henry Kissinger led to disengagement agreements and dialogue that culminated in Egyptian President Sadat visiting the Knesset (the Israeli Parliament) leading to the Israeli-Egyptian Peace Treaty of 1979. I admire President Sadat’s bravery, wisdom, and desire to look towards peace. He was assassinated in 1981 by a militant inspired by religious leaders. Israel gave back to Egypt all of Sinai but didn’t want the Gaza Strip. Sadat signed the peace agreement with Israeli Prime Minister Begin, the leader of a right-wing party (I never voted for him), suggesting that Israelis are willing to give a lot for peace.

During the 70s and 80s, Israel started building settlements in the West Bank, Golan Heights, and Gaza. The settlers’ leaders tended to be religious and driven by a messianic vision. The longer the stalemate continues, the more settlements are being built. The settlements and the stalemates in the territories led to Arab Uprisings (Intifada). The first Intifada was between 1987 and 1993, with many Palestinian and Israeli casualties. The Intifada suggested the need for a solution to an Israeli-Palestinian problem. The peace with Egypt showed that peace was possible and inspired further peace negotiations. The Oslo Process saw mutual recognition between Israel and the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) and a 1993 agreement to negotiate peace. In 1994, Israel signed a peace agreement with Jordan. Yitzhak Rabin, the Chief of Staff leading to the victory of the Six-Day War, was the Prime Minister during the Oslo Process and the peace treaty with Jordan. He, unfortunately, was murdered by a Jewish religious fanatic in 1995. A few years after Rabin’s death, in 2000, President Clinton initiated the Middle East Peace Summit at Camp David with Israeli Prime Minister Barak and PLO Chief Yasser Arafat. Barak offered to return, essentially, to the 1967 borders, and Arafat refused. This was a blow to the peace camp because this was a maximal proposal from the Israeli perspective and would have required confrontation with the settlers. The failure of the Camp David Peace Summit might have also triggered the second Intifada 2000-2005, resulting in the death of 1000 Israelis and 3000 Palestinians. The death of Yasser Arafat in 2004, the construction of the Israeli Security Wall, and Israel’s unilateral disengagement from Gaza are seen as major causes of the end of the Second Intifada. 

Ariel Sharon initiated the Israeli disengagement from Gaza. Sharon was probably the most formidable Israeli general and a major promoter of settlements. When he became Prime Minister, he realized that to keep the democratic and Jewish nature of Israel, it was imperative to give up control of major Arab territories. He initiated disengagement from Gaza, which included the removal of multiple settlements. There was global support for the plan by the US, EU, and UN, and hopes that this will kindle a more extensive reconciliation between Israelis and Palestinians. Prime Minister Olmert, who replaced Sharon, spoke about disengagement from the West Bank. However, he was removed from office for corruption and replaced by Netanyahu. The last 15 years have seen Israel developing and becoming a start-up nation. Even the Arab citizens of Israel, while suffering from discrimination, have enjoyed an increase in their standard of living and well-being. The trauma in the neighboring countries contrasted with the improved situation in Israel. The Arab world has been engulfed in the Arab Spring and the terrible wars in Syria and Iraq. Iran has become a dominant power, threatening both Israel and the Sunni nations, such as Saudi Arabia. The US attempted to reduce its involvement in the Middle East, which led to closer ties between Israel and some of the Arab countries (including peace treaties between Israel, Morocco, and the Emirates) and a possibility of peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia. It generated the illusion that you can solve the conflict in the Middle East without explicitly addressing the Palestinian problem. 

The second Intifada ended in 2005, and the situation in the West Bank seemed quiet despite the expansion of settlements, which has been a source of contention. Despite many barriers, citizens of the West Bank returned to work in Israel, and there has been investment and growth. As you can see from Figure 2, there was a decline in GDP during the 2000-2005 Intifada, and then the GDP grew at a rate of 5-10%, except during the Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 Pandemic. Hamas, which is the offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood and doesn’t recognize Israel’s right to exist, took over control of Gaza around 2006. Israel and Egypt blockaded Gaza, yet much of the water and electricity were supplied by Israel, and donations by Oman, the EU, and assistance by the UN refugee agency kept the economy going. Quality of life in Gaza has been deficient, with high rates of unemployment and significant migration. Materials were smuggled to Gaza through tunnels, and Hamas, aided by Iran, used much of the aid provided to build military capabilities and infrastructure frequently inside densely populated areas, including hospitals. There have been multiple clashes between Israel and Hamas, with many casualties, mainly in Gaza. Hamas attempted to invade settlements in Israel through tunnels and other means but failed until October 7^th, 2023. Despite the misery in Gaza, the situation seemed to be “under control” to Israel, Arab countries, and the rest of the world. 

 

Figure 2. GDP Growth. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=PS

Netanyahu was the prime minister of Israel between 2009 and 2021. He tried to avoid conflict and engagement in war, and the economy did well during much of this period. However, Netanyahu wants to keep the territories and has supported the settlement movement. He’s very articulate and smart, but he has engaged in some questionable and corrupt activities that led to lawsuits that may put him in prison. Netanyahu cares mostly about himself and wants to stay in power. His current government relies on a narrow minority and is the most right-wing Israel has seen. The government has tried to enact a legal reform that will reduce the power of the judiciary system and give the executive branch unlimited power. The Israeli Supreme Court has prevented government excesses and has been a key for maintaining a functioning democracy, and its independence was threatened. That led to a brave protest movement in 2023 that stopped much of the reform. However, Netanyahu and the government expanded the West Bank activities and moved army units there to protect the settlers, assuming that all was quiet on the Gaza front.

Hamas, after several failed attempts to invade Israel, developed a new strategy with likely Iranian support and executed it on October 7^th. The purpose of the invasion was to kill as many as possible and capture many hostages, and it succeeded. The cruelty of the attack and the hatred it portrayed shocked Israelis and many others. This was an act of war, and Israel responded accordingly, aiming to eliminate Hamas and the threat it presents. The damage to Gaza’s population is immense. We are witnessing exchanges of hostages and prisoners and a pause in the fighting, but the situation is likely to continue to be bad before it gets better. 

My Interpretation

The attack on October 7^th, 2023, led to two disasters. The killing, raping, and kidnapping of 1400 people in Israel and the enormous carnage (14,000+) and immense destruction in Gaza. There are multiple culprits. First, Hamas instigated the attack and instructed its fighters to maximize damage to civilians. They are responsible for the direct tragedy in Israel but also for the tragedy in Gaza because they should have expected that Israel would respond very aggressively. At the same time, the Israeli government bears much of the responsibility for the death and destruction caused by Hamas. Hamas vowed to destroy Israel, and the government must make sure that its people are safe. But, the Netanyahu government had a misconception of Hamas’ intentions and capabilities. To weaken the Palestinian Authority and reduce the likelihood of a two-state solution, they implicitly supported Hamas. The Netanyahu government diverted military divisions to protect settlers in the West Bank and neglected the Gaza region. I learned as a kid that if you leave the door open, property will be stolen, and damage will occur. So, while it is essential to reduce the capacity of Hamas, it’s also crucial that the Netanyahu government will be replaced.   

Israel is a strong country, but it is threatened. The events of October 7^th reminded many Israelis, including myself, that the physical existence of the country and the people are at risk. For people who survived the Holocaust and look at Israel as a haven, this event is traumatic. 

The killing on October 7^th and observing the atrocities in Syria and Iraq only strengthened the Israelis’ sense of vulnerability about their fate once the country lost its capacity to deter attacks. Furthermore, the call to “free Palestine from the river to the sea” is a revival of the old threat “to throw the Jews to the sea.” Israel and others are determined to destroy Hamas and to restore deterrence against similar activities. 

But at what price? The war with Hamas will cause much collateral damage. The war needs to end, and hostages need to be returned ASAP. It’s impractical to eliminate Hamas completely, but Israel can gain control of Gaza and end Hamas’ control relatively soon, but then recovery must start. Despite the unbelievable cruelty of the attack on October 7^th, the incredible hatred that it conveyed, and the immense suffering the Israeli response brought on the Palestinians in Gaza, the only way forward is to look for accommodation and peace. Not every Palestinian is a member of Hamas, and the majority of Israelis do not support the views of Ben-Gvirand the messianic settlers. Germany and France have become allies, and Jews and Germans get along. Most people on both sides want to live a quiet life in peace. 

The crisis may bring opportunity. Israel, the Palestinians, the Arab states, and the world have an opportunity for a new start. Rebuilding Gaza will require a lot of resources, and restoring the Israeli public sense of confidence will be a big challenge. Now is an opportunity to make drastic changes. We need a change of government both in Israel and Gaza. The Israeli public will need to decide if the lesson of this tragedy is to pursue a policy of suspicion and expansion– believe that all the Arabs are against the Jewish state and peace is impossible. Or to follow a policy of Peace with strength. The US and the rest of the world should use their influence to bring compromise and peace. 

I know that the two-state solution is not popular, but to me, that’s the only reasonable solution, and it can be achieved as part of reconciliation between Israel and the Arab world. The confrontation and expansion approach – pursued by some with messianic zeal – will likely bring destruction. I hope Netanyahu will resign and Israel will have a new election to select an enlightened government. Israel cannot afford a government dominated by messianic settlers and religious fanatics. It needs a government that is tough, reasonable, and ready for compromise and peace. Israel cannot and should not control Gaza for a long time. The Palestinian people must have a government that will pursue their rights and well-being but also accept a peaceful existence with Israel. Part of this reconciliation will be a significant effort to solve the refugee program. There is a time to end the UN refugee agencies and invest in sustainable solutions to the refugee problem. There are enough resources in the Arab world and Israel to finance rebuilding Gaza and the lives of many of the refugees. Israel and the Palestinians will look to the rest of the world for help. We need global and local leadership to vigorously pursue  growth, and peace and oppose the action that makes coexistence impossible. Both Israeli settlements and Palestinian attacks on Israelis must be stopped. 

Looking at the bigger picture, the main culprit in the Middle East Conflict, now and in the past, is religious fanaticism^[1]. People who tried to bring peace, like King Abdullah, Rabin, and Sadat, were killed by religious fanatics. The Muslim Brotherhood and the Iranian theocracy are the fiercest enemies of Israel. The Jewish settler movement has a messianic conviction that is uncompromising. Peace requires compromise. I respect religion but object to religious zealots who don’t recognize the rights of others. The separation of church from state has been one of the greatest human innovations and should be part of life in the Middle East. 

Jewish history has multiple examples of suffering because of the adherence of Jews or others to religious prescriptions. The Jewish history of messianic movements mostly led to calamities. The Jewish rebellion in 133 was inspired by rabbis, including the revered Rabbi Akiva, who saw the uprising leader, Bar Kokhba, as a messiah. Still, the rebellion led to the destruction of Jerusalem and the expulsion of the Jews from Palestine and our 2000-year diaspora. A significant minority of national religious Jews who lead the settlement movement believe that the establishment of modern Israel is part of a messianic process. However, David Ben Gurion has pursued a policy of strength to seek recognition and peace. He accepted the partition plan, was ready to return to the 1948 borders after the Six-Day War in return for peace and led the establishment of a secular modern state. The Israeli political system’s biggest challenge is preventing these perspectives from taking over.  Since about 70% of the Jewish population of Israel is not religious or ultra-orthodox, and a large majority believe in democracy and believe that the democratic law should take priority over religious rules, I hope and believe that sanity will curtail the messianic tendencies. 

The seven Arab nations that invaded Palestine in 1948 to prevent the establishment of Israel and, to a large extent, are responsible for the Nakba – were primarily motivated by religious beliefs. I hope that the influence of religion in the Arab world is declining. Iran, while very important, is the only country in the Middle East run by clerics. Saudi Arabia and the Emirates are becoming very pragmatic- and the Abraham Accords and Arab Peace Initiative of 2007 suggest a willingness to reach co-existence. I believe that the tendencies towards more rational secular decision-making will continue and will lead to the emergence of a peaceful Middle East. 

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^[1] Whenever I make this statement, people ask me, “Do you believe in God?” I believe that there is an entity that runs the world, but I don’t think it is a Jewish, Muslim, or Christian God. I don’t know the governance structure of the universe. Is it one ruler or many? Does every galaxy or star have its ruling system? Whatever it is, we cannot change it. 

One thing I gleaned from science is that we live through evolutionary processes. The universe has changed since the Big Bang. We know about Darwinian evolution, and our knowledge and understanding of the world evolves. Therefore, I do not believe that old books contain truth and laws that hold forever.  We can change our guiding principles with our growing knowledge. For example, most of us oppose two primary institutions that were part of the book of Moses: slavery and animal sacrifice. We should avoid following many other religions’ dictates – that prevents us from living in peace as humans and accepting one another.