I was devastated in 2016 when I heard about the Trump victory while I was in Germany. Somehow, we survived it, but I hoped it would never happen again. I was very disappointed that he won again, this time by the popular vote, and that he and his party led a complete takeover of the Presidency, House, and Senate.
I try to understand why it was swept away after four years of what I and many others considered a good performance by the current administration. The more I think about it, the more I realize how we, in academia and educational classes, are out of touch with many parts of America. I concluded that in democracy, the election is the big equalizer. Social groups exploited and unresected by the upper classes can select to vote and change the power distribution.
Over the last few years, the Democratic Party has become dominated by educated professionals on the coast, aligned with disadvantaged groups and labor organizations. MAGA has transformed the Republican Party and is a coalition of some of the very rich with high school educated and religious groups. With Trump, there is an emphasis on a conflict between the educated middle-class Democrats and the less educated Republicans. The challenge of winning the election was capturing some groups that tended to vote for the other side.
This class difference affected the perspective of the two parties and had an incredible impact on the election. One prominent example is an attitude towards recent inflation. To me and many other economists, Biden did an excellent job. He was able to put money in people’s pockets so they could survive the pandemic and laid the foundation for developing infrastructure to battle climate change. It resulted in a very tight market and low unemployment (for most of us, unemployment is the most critical indicator), and inflation didn’t exceed 10%. Compared to past inflations, current rates are low.
I noticed higher prices; they were a nuisance but nothing serious. Altogether, maintaining robust employment and slowly squishing inflation seems a big achievement. But that’s not the case for the average Joe and Jane. They don’t compare what happened under the Biden administration to what could have been or the 1970s; for them, all inflation is bad. When Biden declared that the economy was doing well, these people asked where he lived.
I believe that instead, the Democrats should have given a historical perspective. Bush got us into trouble with the financial crisis of 2007/2008. Obama restored the economy to order and provided Trump with the foundation for an improving economy. Trump’s pandemic response was pathetic. Remember his suggestion to use bleach? His anti-vax stances? Biden made sure we survived the pandemic, and he might have made a mistake (overspending), which led to inflation, but it now seems corrected. Instead of saying that the economy is in great shape, the Democrats should admit some problems and provide a perspective. There was another issue with Biden: he never spoke to the population. Fireside chats, explaining to people what was going on admitting mistakes occasionally, and defining his direction could have helped. But not everyone could be
A related topic is high housing prices, especially in cities controlled by Democrats. Young, non-professional people wonder if they can ever own a house. Their parents wonder, “Will my kids benefit from the American dream?” I was glad Kamala addressed this topic–but I wish she were more dramatic, emphasizing that the housing shortage is a national priority and addressing some of the leading causes of said shortages: strict zoning, NIMBYism, and slow regulatory processes, and suggesting that she will take the lead in addressing these issues. Her approach to housing seemed too wonkish–she was at her best when he showed emotion and force of conviction.
Trump played the migration card with a devilish efficiency. The US is a country of migrants; we have a low unemployment rate, and without recent migrants, the economy many sectors of the economy would suffer. This is well known. But Illegal drugs — such as fentanyl and synthetic opioids, cocaine, and methamphetamine — are smuggled by cartels and other criminal organizations, and there is a perception that the border is open. Obama probably had the strictest border controls but didn’t flaunt it. Biden relaxed some of Trump’s regulations and then introduced tightened controls, giving Trump a horse he could ride on. Kamala was right to blame him for not passing a strict bipartisan migration law, but he still owned the topic. I view it within a bigger context.
Most of the public is afraid of crime and mayhem. The Democrats have some marginal groups that introduce central ideas like “abolish the police” or “open the border.” Some cities like San Francisco are sanctuary cities. Furthermore, “illegal aliens” are now called “undocumented.” I am not disturbed by it, but for someone whose primary asset is being an American and who lives in an unsafe neighborhood with gangs, calls to dismantle the police and basis in a functioning legal system turn them on against the Democrats. I grew up in a poor neighborhood. We didn’t like the police. But we needed them because we were afraid of criminals. While I and many of my friends see Trump and his crowd as irresponsible and immoral, many of the public have the same perspective of the Democrats. They see the Democrats as “godless” and unpatriotic, who care about esoteric issues but don’t understand the concerns of the orderly person. To some, Trump seems like a successful man who can understand where. they are coming from. Others almost think about him in religious terms. He has been prosecuted but without success. He even survived two assassination attempts and responded like a hero. Still, many of Trump’s supporters know that he is far from a saint. If he needed an abortion, he would get one. But politicians are like lawyers. They have a job to do, and you select them if they deliver. Many people didn’t want to vote for Trump, but they voted for him because he seemed to be the least bad option.
The Democrats started as the party of the working class. But it is no more. Biden was unique in his ability to relate to middle-class people, and perhaps the same is true with Tim Walz (the “Coach”), Bernie, and AOC. The Democrats let every activist group emphasize their pet concern: climate change and transgender policies (toilets, surgery, and Olympics), and there was a tiny mention of the cost of living. So, for many working people, the Democrats were not relevant. Being an environmental economist, I have heard more than once that climate change is less of a priority if your income depends on fossil fuels. For such people, the preachiness of the Democrats and the implicit admonition of people who don’t share their priorities was alienating and caused hostility. Trump and his allies used all these issues that seem marginal to me to show that the Democrats are unserious and even dangerous. This is the point people don’t realize.
Several of my friends disagreed with me that the extreme perspective of abolishing the police is hurting the Democrats. They see it as a perspective held by a marginal group. Still, many in middle America hear this perspective and listen to reports on renaming schools to replace Lincoln and Jefferson (it doesn’t matter if it doesn’t happen in the end) and think these guys are crazy! Obama realized that he had a similar problem and gave a speech where he denounced Jerimiah Wright’s claim in which he said, “God Damn America.” I wish Biden and Kamala had made similar strong statements that clarified they held moderate, reasonable views.
I thought Kamala had good momentum, and Trump ran away from another debate. But the issues of immigration and inflation haunted her. When asked what she would do differently from Biden, she didn’t offer any answers suggesting that she should have made migration policy more restrictive earlier, introduced an initiative to reduce housing regulation, or done anything else that could show some action on issues the public cared about.
I don’t know if Kamala won when everything is said and done. She was given a stern hand and wasn’t an ideal candidate. Being a Black Indian woman didn’t help. If Biden had followed his promise of being a one-term president, the primary process might have produced a better candidate. Trump is not a popular winner like Obama or Clinton, but he won. I have three major concerns. First, the future of democracy–the Insurrection (Putch) of January 6th and the disregard for democratic processes following it don’t bode well for democracy in the U.S. and the world. Second, Trump thrives on polarization and will expand it. We need to build bridges among people rather than walls. Third, the intent to raise tariffs may lead to global trade wars, and trade wars lead to real wars.
America is challenged to survive the Trump era, develop mechanisms to counter some of the excesses that may emerge in Washington, and develop alternative, more humane, and enlightened future leadership.
Excellent.
A lot of insights and very good synthesis
Thank you so much, dear David!
I think you’ve “over-thought” your election analysis. A simpler explanation is that if you nominate a dimwitted candidate who can’t put three coherent sentences together extemporaneously, who’s a terrible campaigner, who couldn’t separate herself from Biden’s unpopular administration, and who picked a dubious running mate, you lose. Big. Even against an unsavory, flawed opponent.
Excellent piece, David! Thanks for sharing…
Great analysis.
You believe there will be another election? Watch while we collectively allow him to destroy our democracy and have the oligarchs run the show.
Dear David
I think there is a simple question we can ask – what were the voters who really mattered i.e., those who changed their party choice between 2020 and 2024 in the states that really mattered – thinking? The answer is of course not as simple. My theory about this voting group is that feeling good about the economic situation of oneself is a necessary but not sufficient condition to vote for the incumbent party. If it is good, they will vote based on other issues and prone to propaganda. If it is bad, it is the issue that matters most and am not going to be swayed by how good or bad a candidate is on the other issues
Of course this is a theory.
Clearly more left the Dems or did not vote compared to those who left Repubs or did not vote. If those people were feeling the pinch on the purse and hence switched, this would be the most satisfying because this is one issue were people know better than experts and they indeed have reason to feel unhappy and ignore the other things they may like or dislike. But if they voted primarily on other issues, I would say that is where people are more prone to fall to propaganda and where we need trust in experts which has been blown smithereens both by social media but also self-inflicted by the progressives by their stance on a lot of issues. I want to be careful here for as an academic, we are being bombarded by these issues but this play differently for voters who perceive their economic situation differently.
Deepak
The Democrat Party Leadership: Corrupt and Out of Touch with Reality
November 18, 2024
David,
Thanks for offering a discussion space. I am going to be very frank, in the hopes of stimulating respectful and honest exchange of views.
I am a swing voter. While registered Republican, I have voted for Democrats in the past and hope to do so again. But I cannot do so when the leadership of the Democrat party leadership is so obviously corrupt and out of touch with reality. Here are just a few examples of what I mean.
First, corruption:
• The party leadership and the Biden Administration have sought to jail, harass and bankrupt Trump during an organized lawfare campaign to deprive about 75 million Americans of their choice for President. This has never happened before in our county. It is profoundly anti-democratic and a very dangerous precedent. Republicans can also play the lawfare game. So please, no claims to be the party of choice and democracy.
• Democrat leaders must have known about Biden’s obvious mental unfitness before the debate with Trump made it obvious. Instead of exercising the 25th Amendment to replace Biden, the party leaders gas lit us that Biden was “sharp as a tack”. No, he wasn’t, and his continuing mental unfitness endangers the whole county.
Second, out of touch with reality:
• The party denies biological sex, believes that a country can exist without borders, thinks that a transition to 100% green energy is possible (it is not), believes that running trillion-dollar annual deficits will not destroy our currency…and on and on.
• Democrats yell loudly that Trump is Hitler and a fascist. Nonsense. Trump was President for four years. There is not a single example during those four years where his actions matched that inflammatory rhetoric. However, such rhetoric does inspire unstable individuals to violence, as witnessed in the two attempted assassinations of Trump.
• Finally, the party leadership has become a group of warmongers. That is stupid and dangerous. Now “Biden” has given Ukraine the green light to use long-range, US-supplied weapons to strike deep into Russia. Russia has said that doing so will be regarded as an act of war. Do we really want to go that direction?
I truly hope the Democrat party returns to sanity and honesty. I knew such a Democrat party once. But that is not the Democrat party (leadership) of today. I hope honest and sane Democrats will take back their party.
Bruce Dale
University Distinguished Professor Emeritus
Michigan State University
Dear Distinguished Professor Emeritus Bruce Dahl,
I hope you find your post has aged well.
David,
Thanks for offering a discussion space. I am going to be very frank, in the hopes of stimulating respectful and honest exchange of views.
I am a swing voter. While a registered Republican, I have voted for Democrats in the past and hope to do so again. But I cannot do so when the leadership of the Democrat party is so obviously corrupt and out of touch with reality. Here are just a few examples of what I mean.
First, corruption:
The party leadership and the Biden Administration have sought to jail, harass and bankrupt Trump during an organized lawfare campaign to deprive about 75 million Americans of their choice for President. This has never happened before in our county. It is profoundly anti-democratic and a very dangerous precedent. Republicans can also play the lawfare game–is that truly what the Democrats want? So please, no claims to be the party of choice and democracy while pursuing lawfare.
Democrat leaders must have known about Biden’s mental unfitness before the debate with Trump made it obvious to everyone. Instead of exercising the 25th Amendment to replace Biden, the party leaders gas lit us that Biden was “sharp as a tack”. No, he wasn’t, and his continuing mental unfitness endangers the whole county.
Second, out of touch with reality:
The party denies biological sex, believes that a country can exist without borders, thinks that a transition to 100% green energy is possible (it is not), believes that running trillion-dollar annual deficits will not destroy our currency…and on and on.
Democrats yell loudly that Trump is Hitler and a fascist. Nonsense. Trump was President for four years. There is not a single example during those four years where his actions justify that inflammatory rhetoric. However, such rhetoric does inspire unstable individuals to violence, as witnessed in the two attempted assassinations of Trump. Is that truly what Democrats want–because that is what their actions are provoking?
Finally, the party leadership has become a group of warmongers. That is both stupid and dangerous. Now “Biden” has given Ukraine the green light to use long-range, US-supplied weapons to strike deep into Russia. Russia has said that doing so will be regarded as an act of war. Do we really want to go that direction?
I truly hope the Democrat party returns to sanity and honesty. I knew such a Democrat party once. But that is not the Democrat party (leadership) of today. I truly hope honest and sane Democrats will take back their party.
Bruce Dale
University Distinguished Professor Emeritus
Michigan State University
Insightful! A lot of thanks for your share!